Episode 489 — How to Overcome Your Own Biases in Decision Making with Annie Duke
Winning a hand doesn’t mean you played it well. Losing one doesn’t mean you didn’t.
In this episode of The Game Changing Attorney Podcast, Michael Mogill sits down with Annie Duke, former professional poker player, World Series of Poker bracelet winner, and best-selling author of Thinking in Bets and Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, to talk about why a great decision can still end in a loss, how confirmation bias hides behind our smartest instincts, and what it actually takes to know when to walk away.
Here’s what you’ll learn:
- Why a good decision can still produce a bad outcome, and a bad one can still win
- How confirmation bias convinces smart people they’ve already got it right
- What it takes to know the difference between grit that pays off and grit that’s costing you
Good decisions and good outcomes are not the same thing. This episode will help you tell them apart.
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Show Notes:
A win doesn’t grade the decision that led to it. “Just because I won doesn’t mean I played the hand well. That doesn’t make it a good decision.”
The higher the stakes and the murkier the information, the more room bias has to creep in. “The more uncertainty there is, the more likely your decisions are going to be biased.”
A label for your blind spot is not the same thing as a fix for it. “It’s better to not even know about something than to know about something and think you’ve solved it when you haven’t.”
The chips already in the pot aren’t the ones you should be defending. “Any dollar that I put in the pot going forward is being wasted, because the hand isn’t worth playing.”
The person you’ll be in a year already knows which decision is right. “What feels good to us in the short run is often very bad for what our long-term goals are.”
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